Here's How Robert F. Kennedy Jr. can win the Presidency
There is a window, a narrow one, but it would change the country forever
With only 23 states and 56,000,000 popular votes, Kennedy can win the Presidency!
Kennedy can come in 2nd or 3rd place in popular vote and still win the electoral college.
Popular votes are like hits in baseball and electoral votes are like runs. You need hits to get runs, but you don’t win on hits alone.
You need 270 electoral votes to win the election
Republican and Democratic strategists/data people will show you what worked for them
But no one in the modern era has won the Presidency running as an independent
So no one is the expert on doing this. We are all trying to figure this out.
Step 1: Build an electoral map
The first step is you need to build a winning electoral map and that is what I have done.
A fundamental error you will make is trying to compete in 50 states. You won’t have resources and time to do this. You will get blown out trying to do this.
The campaign can get on the ballot in 50 states but shouldn’t try to compete in 50 states.
There is no reason to either.
Not all electoral votes are created. This means in some states you can get electoral votes with fewer popular votes than in other states.
This creates an arbitrage opportunity.
By only winning 23 states, Kennedy will have more than 270 electoral votes and will be President.
I figured this out by value ranking all states by how many popular votes each takes to get an electoral college vote. I then factored in the number of overall votes, independent votes, the Republican/Democratic spread.
This reveals the arbitrage. Get a lot of popular votes in certain states and get a lot more electoral votes for your investment!
After running those numbers, Kennedy only needs to win 23 states to win the Presidency.
When you first look at this map, it is going to look odd and traditional political operatives will scoff. But Kennedy needs to draw a new map. If he follows the strategies of the two parties, he will get blown out.
Analysts will tell you a state is Republican or Democrat, but when you break down each state you usually find areas that are quite Republican, quite Democratic then a few that are evenly matched.
For an independent candidate, this means messaging differently in different congressional districts they can appeal to both sides.
Step 2: Create A Wedge
If you are getting votes for Kennedy in a congressional district, why not get them for an independent congressional candidate in each district as well (someone that is anti-forever wars, pro balanced budget, anti-corruption).
First secure the vote for Kennedy but the reason you want to elect congresspeople as well is the wedge.
If Kennedy wins he is on an island. He won’t have a mandate. Congress will be hostile to him. So without a mandate, you need a wedge.
The US House and US Senate are closely divided. If you are already in the congressional districts competing for the Presidency, why not get a few representatives and Senators elected.
You are already there.
The current house is 221-212 Republicans-Dems.
If you can win 10+ house seats, neither side will have a majority and this independent coalition can negotiate agreements with either party.
This is called a wedge strategy. The marginal votes hold the most power.
The Senate is 51-49 Dems to Republicans
So you only need 2-3 senate seats to cause the same wedge.
With a wedge in both chambers, Kennedy can negotiate that certain bills will be brought to the floor, independents will have certain powerful chairmanships, and he will have leverage he won’t have otherwise.
Implementing the wedge is rather simple. Win the vote first for Kennedy.
Then closer to the election, send out slate cards with independent candidates for congress.
“If you like Kennedy Independents, then vote for these independent candidates to change Washington.”
Kennedy has to win 247 congressional districts to win the Presidency, he might as well get a few congressional people elected. He also has to win 12 states where Senate races are ongoing. Why not get a few independent Senators in there as well?
Here are the wedge targets
