Trump is Going to Lose

Here's why and what he can do if he pivots right now

Put aside the horse race and the drama of the last month.

Look at the poll numbers in late July.

Where is Trump going to get at least 100,000 votes in PA? Show me the precincts where he does it.

Where are they going to get at least 20,000 votes in Wisconsin?

I don’t see it.

I think Kamala will outperform Joe’s vote totals.

I think she will be at 80% effectiveness by election day but that will be enough to win.

Trump’s Imperative: Play for the tie and run out the clock

Lock down

Arizona

Georgia

North Carolina

Focus on Nevada

Pick up 40,000 votes there

Focus on Nebraska 2nd

Pick up 30,000 votes there

70,000 total votes is all Trump needs to win the Presidency.

This is 269 electoral votes. Your best bet is an electoral college tie.

Republicans should maintain their party delegation lead in the House and Trump would be handed the Presidency by the House.

I think what Trump is going to do is chase Kamala. Stick to his old plan. Expand the map. Dilute resources, get out fundraised. Lose Arizona with Kelly on the ticket or PA with Shapiro on the ticket.

If Trump does that, here’s the scenario I see playing out

All the momentum he had a few weeks ago is gone. Trump needs to reset, pivot and adapt to the changing landscape. Will he? I don’t think so and it will be President Harris with 276 electoral votes.