What I Thought Was Going to Happen in the South Carolina Democratic Primary vs What Happened
Months ago I made predictions and a plan for RFK Jr. to win the Democratic primary.
My thesis in Sept 2023
RFK Jr. can win the Democratic primary with 1889 delegates
He can win the 6th district in SC
Turnout will be low for Biden
A Kennedy victory or near loss in SC would make Biden’s age an even bigger issue
Kennedy’s people decided he should be independent.
I agreed he should have been independent long term.
I disagreed with them that Kennedy should have dropped out of the Democratic primary in the short term (which they did).
I wanted him in the Democratic primary for 4 reasons
1. Get his name out there
2. Biden's historical weakness
3. Kennedy had a real shot at the early states.
4. Biden's loss or close win in SC would become the story and would lead to questions about his capabilities.
Waiting until the general election meant Kennedy would go a long time without voters seeing him (leading people to not even knowing he is running).
Plus it is a huge risk to donors if you don't show any proof you can garner votes.
The Democratic South Carolina wasn't as daunting as it first appears.
Joe was actually much weaker than it appeared. You could performed 50% below 2020 Democratic votes and you would still have beaten Biden in 2024.
539,263*.5 = 269,631
There is an argument to be made he would have gotten more votes if there was competition. Biden may have gotten 300k or 400k, but not 500,000.
I way overshot SC, but I was building a tamper proof plan that no matter what the Dems did, they would lose to Kennedy. I want Kennedy’s people to go for 900,000 votes. By shooting high and missing, they’d still beat Biden handily.
While my numbers were high, my thesis was correct. Biden was historically weak, South Carolina had the excess voters to defeat Biden, and a loss in SC would derail Biden.
South Carolina wasn't the only state where Biden was weak. Michigan was a rich delegate target with a more moderate populace.
Kennedy had ample opportunities in Michigan. Let's see if I am right. Take the Michigan Democratic primary vote from 2020, subtract 50% and see if that is still more votes than Joe Biden got. 1,587,679 *.5 = 793,839