Why Did I Want Kennedy to Stay in the Democratic Primary? The reason may surprise you.
His people didn't agree, but I think you may agree once you read this
Why I am wasting time Monday morning quarterbacking? It makes me feel better that what I said in Sept 2023 has ended up being correct in Feb.
There was a chance for Kennedy to win. His PAC and his people around him just didn't do what was needed to make it happen.
The democratic primary was a test run for the general election. Kennedy entered the race too late, so a guerrilla style warfare approach would be required.
In guerrilla warfare you are looking for high leverage situations.
Such as a historically weak incumbent flipping the primary calendar and putting a strong Republican state as the first Dem Primary.
Biden's historical weakness, apathy about Biden Trump, and SC being a Republican state were all to advantages for Kennedy
The disadvantage was the proportional nature of the primary which makes it tough to beat the favorite.
The Democrats also had a ton of money and the best get out the vote operation.
I wanted Kennedy to go after ~900,000 votes in SC. You may think that is crazy and you'd be correct. I am crazy like a fox.
Aiming for 900,000 votes forces you go all in.
It's the 'Shoot for the Moon; even if you miss, you'll land among the stars' strategy.
If Kennedy stayed in Biden would have spent more money and would have gotten more than 192,000 votes. I think it would have been in the 300,000-400,000 vote range.
But I designed the plan so even if Biden way over performed (647,000), Kennedy would still beat him.
Pursuing 900,000 would require the Kennedy PACs and campaign to go all in fundraising for SC and would have had a good shot at 250,000 votes considering SC is an open primary where anyone can vote in the Dem primary.
I got pushback that my number was too high.
Here was my response
1. This is a test run for get out the vote for the general election. It helps stress test your GOTV infrastructure
2. SC is a republican state. There are many people that would vote against Biden. It's why I recommended in 2020 that Trump send 200,000 voters over to the Dem Primary to knock Biden out at that point.
3. Winning or doing very well in SC establishes momentum and reinforces the narrative that Biden is weak.
It was also part of a jab jab upper hook play with Michigan that I will explain in another article. I was setting Biden up based on what I surmised his staff would do.
You want to get Biden to wobble in SC and then knock him down in Michigan. Then who knows what happens. Anything could.