Why Vivek Lost in 2024 and What He Can Do to Win in 2028
He ran a good campaign in 2024, but here's how he can run a winning campaign in 2028
Why Vivek Lost and What He Can Do to Win
I've heard analysts and Vivek himself talk about why he lost.
His takeaway was that MAGA voters didn't quite trust him, he wasn't well known at first, and he lost out to better funded opponents
I don't think he failed because of the first two reasons.
I think it comes down to 3 reasons
1. Vivek was never going to win the Republican primary
RFK Jr had a chance to shakeup Dem primary. I found the narrow mathematical path, but his PAC people couldn’t be bothered to mount a serious campaign.
Republican primary was setup for Trump. Vivek was never going to win. If he sincerely thought he was going to, he needed to sit down with me or some other data person to show him it wasn’t happening mathematically no matter what. Trump had to much of an advantage.
2. Vivek is wonderful 90% of the time but corny, insincere, and arrogant 10% of the time
Vivek isn't going to like this, but he needs to hear this if he wants to win in 2028 because these issues are fixable.
Overall, Vivek is wonderful but in certain unfortunate moments he comes off as insincere. I think it is when he is saying something he doesn't really believe. I get the feeling Vivek is still much more of a libertarian than he lets on. I don't think he truly believes some of the more nationalist stuff/socially conservative stuff, but he knew he had to pray to those sacred issues in the Republican primary.
He is not a candidate you can have trot out half truths. If Vivek doesn’t believe something, he needs to avoid saying it because people can tell he doesn’t believe it. That is why he is better served as an independent where he doesn’t have to genuflect to primary issues.
His sense of humor or tag-lines are sometimes corny. He is geeky and cerebral and when he tries to be folksy and ‘every man’ he comes off as corny. Be who you are and target the younger voters who are more likely to vote for you.
He had a bad habit of being a know it all in debates and seeming arrogant. He is an excellent debater but debates don’t help his image. 1:1 with voters after events and Vivek on podcasts is when he is at his best.
For undecided voters, he was just a bit too pushy to consider when they had the safe harbor of Trump to fall back. This goes back to my first point that Vivek was never going to win.
3. Vivek ran a great air campaign, but a bad ground campaign
I said this over and over to people near Kennedy. You can't win with just air game (podcasts and TV). Vivek did more podcasts than anyone.
It doesn't matter if voters aren't registered and showing up in the precinct you need. That’s where you need a ground game. They attempted a ground game in Iowa, but they were fighting on losing ground.
An effective ground campaign starts with value ranking states and then forming a favorable electoral map.
4. Vivek needs to run as an independent
Run a socially liberal, fiscally conservative anti-corruption populist campaign.
Avoid the fruitless and out dated primary process. Get on the ballot as an independent with help.
He needs to change his stance on abortion. He can be personally against, but as a small government conservative it is not governments job to get in the middle of anyone's medical decisions. Whether that is pregnancy, covid mandates, or end of life decisions.
He needs to be pro-weed, pro crypto. Dump the raising voter age idea and the public service idea. They ain’t happening.
Hi motto should be “We don't have to agree on everything, just the important things.” If you still disagree with me, here's my test. Does it help Americans?
Here's what I would do if I was Vivek
1. Build real time voter database ranked by voter quality score
3. Form a PAC, start raising money for 2028. Set ambitious goal of 1B-2B in the bank.
4. Start formulating the 2028 electoral map even if he ends up taking a position in government.
5. Run a campaign from now through 2028. Beat your opponents with more resources deployed strategically.
For more details, check out If I Were Running for President as an Independent...Here's What I'd Do